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1 December 2025 With Editor DAI-2510

The Extremity Premium: Sentiment Regimes and Adverse Selection in Cryptocurrency Markets

Murad Farzulla

Abstract

Multi-scale sentiment analysis framework for agent-based modeling of cryptocurrency market microstructure. Blends institutional macro signals (ASRI framework) with retail micro signals (CryptoBERT with MC Dropout). In stylized simulation, multi-scale blending reduces volatility from 877% to 5.8% (p=0.013) and spreads from 147 to 3.5 bps (p<0.001) compared to single-source sentiment. Regime-adaptive weighting adjusts macro/micro blend based on detected market conditions.

Suggested Citation

Murad Farzulla (2025). The Extremity Premium: Sentiment Regimes and Adverse Selection in Cryptocurrency Markets. Farzulla Research Working Paper DAI-2510. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17989810

BibTeX

@misc{farzulla2025sentimentabm,
  author = {Farzulla, Murad},
  title = {The Extremity Premium: Sentiment Regimes and Adverse Selection in Cryptocurrency Markets},
  year = {2025},
  howpublished = {Farzulla Research Working Paper DAI-2510},
  doi = {10.5281/zenodo.17989810},
  url = {https://farzulla.org/papers/sentiment-abm}
}

Topics

Financial Markets Cryptocurrency Agent-Based Modeling